Sunday, June 18, 2017

Seth Klarman :

Top three principles of Value investing:
  - Think of Risk first before return.
  - Think of absolute return instead of relative performance to index.
  - Follow bottom up approach instead of top down.



Goal : To make money all the time, protect capital in downside and do well in the upside.



- Look for the Mispriced situation:
       - stocks dropped out of S&P500 index
       - investment rating has changed for a bond from investment to worse.
       - upcoming S&P500 stocks which is 501
       - rating for bond chances to invest
       - corporate spin off due to some issue or parent company looking to get rid of people.
       - Acquisition
       - Mispriced situation with catalyst.

- Look for a range of values in a company.

      - P/E
      - Book Value
      - Working capital
      - Cash value / Per share

- Model the every possible worse situation before investment in stocks
     - in case of auto loan, 2,8,40 % auto loan loss rate
     - 40% cars sitting in dealers home

- Find out who is selling stocks
    - Be careful,
               - if management is selling stocks.
               - if people like Steve Mandel /warren buffet is selling.

- Buy from people who don't know what they are doing.
              - Some situation  people just want to sell so buy in such kind of investment.
              - Corporate spin off natural many seller but not buyer.

-Sell soon / Buy soon.

      - If intrinsic value  is too close. Don't wait for the last moment and greedy. (Before quarterly result).

- Collaborate and corporate for investment ideas since not all ideas are best all times.

- Always keep more weapons in arsenal to take advantage of mispriced situation.
       - Look for situation in bond.
       - Corporate debt
       - Mortgage based security
       - Can own building in real estate
       - Can own loan on building
       - CD/CLO/

- Identify an edge to outperform.
    - Longest edge is long term.
    - Expertise than any other crowd.


- Bad Management

   - Hiring Brother-in-law or relative
   - Taking advantage with free stock and options
   - Poorly capital allocation.
   - Paying overly to themselves.
   - Leveraging too much
   - Only think themselves first.

- Good Management

   - Buy stocks when undervalued.
   - Using stocks as currency.
   - Good capital allocation.
   - Using leveraging diligently.
   - Community/shareholder interest